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:: How Much Longer Will the Expansion Last? ::

 
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JoeClark


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Inscrit le: 19 Juil 2017
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MessagePosté le: Lun 18 Sep - 12:36 (2017)    Sujet du message: How Much Longer Will the Expansion Last? Répondre en citant

While recent activity hasn’t been terrible, it’s extremely underwhelming due to the high expectations of economists. That doesn’t mean the economy is crashing; instead, economists will likely cut estimates, data will be stable or possibly tick up a bit, and suddenly the surprise index will rebound. To illustrate the process, below we’ve charted the Citi Economic surprise index and a good old fashioned sin function (remember those from middle school trigonometry?). You can’t use a sin function to predict when or how high the Citi Economic surprise index will bounce, but they are both cyclical, rising and falling back and forth over time. With economic surprises currently coming in worse than all but 5 prior periods of weak data in the history of the Citi index, it’s likely that chastened economists will start underestimating economic performance soon, at least at the margin, restarting the whole cycle to the upside.
Thanks

I didn't find the right solution from the Internet.

References: https://stockaholics.net/threads/stock-market-today-june-26th-30th.4702/

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